February 2008

Global Cooling?

For a few years those that know me on one of two weather forums know that I have long denounced man made global warming as myth. My reason has been that although there is no doubt that since the 1980's the world has warmed - this has all happened before. Indeed widespread evidence seems to have been ignored in that the world has been far warmer than at present not once but several times in its checkered past. I also pointed out evidence from ice and mud cores has shown that past cooling has also come on far more rapidly than in the past thought - from a warm world to ice cold in less than a decade.

I have been saying for about three years now that far from warming the earth had in fact reached a turning point - and that there were in fact evidence to support the world was cooling. Of course these statements were met with howls of laughter from the supporters of the new cause - GW.

It was also hard to ignore the fact several cold temperature records were recorded last year in the Southern Hemisphere, coupled with a fast growing ice sheet in Antarctica that this summer has seen ice levels 30% higher than last. Add to this Baghdad saw its first recorded snow ever - China's hardest winter for more than 100 years - the largest snow cover in North America for more than 50 years, record cold in Iran, Argentina, Chile, Greece - a long list that goes on it was no surprise to see the latest statement released by Hadley, Nassa, Giss, Uah and Rss.

A statement released by these organizations conclude that the world has cooled so much in the last year alone - it has all but wiped out 100 years of warming.

Evidence from all four major global temperature tracking agencies around the world now show the world has experienced the fastest most single temperature change - both up and down in a single year. The report makes alarming reading in a world that has of late got used to warmth. It can be read at:

http://www.dailytech.com/Temperature+Monitors+Report+Worldwide+Global+Cooling/article10866.htm

What happened to winter?

I have to admit - along with many other amateur weather forecasters - that I was wrong in that this winter has - at least to date - turned out much milder than expected. In fact temperatures, although being cooler than the record warm winter of last year, have been warm enough to fool nature into believing it is already spring. During my trips around the South Wales valleys this week I have noticed a profusion of flowers that should not as yet be displaying their glory - and many hedgerows and early trees coming into leaf. It seems that tortoises have in some cases already awoken from their slumber - and tadpoles seen swimming around pools. It is hard to sometimes remind myself that when I was a young lad living in South East England this was all then unheard of in early February

Indeed it is easy to fool us into believing winter is over given a week of high pressure and sunshine promised - a condition that is sure to fool nature even more. True this coming week will become cooler with much of Europe cooling under convection - but not cool enough to stop the grass - and flowers growing it seems.

There can be no doubt that our winters here in the UK are becoming warmer and in the process shorter. Although myself I do not condone the doomsday scenery painted by some as to the perils of a warmer climate. In fact living in South Wales I can see the distinct advantage of having just that as tourism would increase and with so much beautiful landscapes to enjoy here in Wales there would be no need to hop on a plane to enjoy Greece, Cypress or some other far flung land.

Don't though be fooled. Easter is early this year - being celebrated in March. And it is often that an otherwise warm winter has a sting in the tale with snow in March. Although given how the climate has changed of late maybe a barbecue will be on order after all.