Saturday, November 24, 2007
Interesting weather.
The interesting thing about this year weather wise is that in a time of Global Warming when it has been said that temperatures will inexplicably rise - there are signs that maybe there is some cooling going on. A look at the CET (Central England average temperature profile) shows us that July and August both had lower than expected temperatures. September followed an average month, and October was slightly above average.
Our current month, November, has an average CET of 6.9C. As of today our average temperature for the month here in Cwmparc is 7.7C. Thus far the CET is below last year's , and dropping, meaning that unless the Atlantic arrives with a vengeance to bring us warmer temperatures, this may well be a just average to slightly above average month. Any real cold spell would of course deliver the unthinkable again - a below average CET. Nothing abnormal about these statistics - unless you consider this year is showing as much as a 3C drop in last years figures. The unthinkable happened this year. After all many would have said it would have been impossible to get such a cold wet summer as we did - a year that gave the wettest, coldest summer ever.
Of interest this year has been the different weather patterns that have led to the lack of normal 'Autumn weather'. Little wind and rain at a time when we usually have plenty. Instead replaced by cooler more settled conditions as high pressure has remained in control for much of the last couple of month.
Of interest also is the Arctic from whence much of our cold, and snow in winter, comes from. All these areas are showing much reduced temperatures on last year, and Russia is having what can be termed, a normal autumn after having itself record warm temperatures this time last year.
The charts are indicating at present a return to normality as far as the UK weather is concerned. Indications are that high pressure will sink to our south west much or less it's usual position, and for the normal Atlantic lows with their attendant winds to again cross our shores. I mentioned in my forecast this weekend on 'Treorchy net' that confidence was low on that score, the reason being the charts at the moment are giving different indications every day. Two days ago they were forecasting a severe cold spell, now mild. I would not be surprised that, given how the weather patterns have panned out this last six months, the high pressure to once again put a spanner in the Atlantic's pattern, and to regains control. If this does in fact happen it will signal a pattern that has indeed been set for this winter. But for now - it's a waiting game. Watch out for an update in the near future.