The cold cometh.
After a long spell of Atlantic quietness through the start of Autumn - it finally wakened with a vengeance this last week. It was a long time coming but has now heralded the long awaited transition from Summer to Winter to be well under way. The one significant feature besides the wind this last week has been the cooling down of temperatures after the first couple of warm days of November.
Following on from my recent blog on the coming winter I have been avidly reading long range forecasts from various agencies as to the likely outcome of this coming season - including that of the Meteorological office. There is general agreement this winter will be cooler than last - although to be fair it would be very good going to get two winters in a row that is as warm, or even warmer than last winter. A near record as far as winter temperatures.
The agencies are again in accord in that they are expecting a slightly above average temperature winter and for a drier winter than last. None are committed to a harsh winter. Not surprising given that it is many years since the UK, or Wales, have endured a long cold snowy season. We are it seems long overdue a cold winter although some doubt given we are in an age of global warming that this is in anyway possible.
My views are that weather is cyclic, and the latest warming spell is one such cyclic rhythm, and that a cold cycle is now beginning. With low sunspot activity I expect this year to offer what to many is the unexpected - a cold and possibly long winter with ample snowfall. The past summer was the coldest and wettest for many a year, and temperatures so far this Autumn have been average. High pressure has consistently ridged from the Azores northward and eastward, and is persistently doing so - leading me to believe a pattern is now becoming established. For this reason I am in agreement with the various agencies that this winter will be drier than last, and drier than average. Temperatures I believe will be average to below with some very cold snowy periods intermingled with short warmer spells. In my opinion there is a more than even chance this winter will be the coldest for more than a decade.
The weather patterns of the last few months have been reminiscent of patterns in the 60’s and 70‘s - reinforcing my view.
This blog will be updated on a regular basis so keep coming back for updates. Meantime you are able to view my weather station - Cwmparc Weather - for live weather and forecasts at http://www.derrylynne.co.uk/cwmweather/wx.php
Following on from my recent blog on the coming winter I have been avidly reading long range forecasts from various agencies as to the likely outcome of this coming season - including that of the Meteorological office. There is general agreement this winter will be cooler than last - although to be fair it would be very good going to get two winters in a row that is as warm, or even warmer than last winter. A near record as far as winter temperatures.
The agencies are again in accord in that they are expecting a slightly above average temperature winter and for a drier winter than last. None are committed to a harsh winter. Not surprising given that it is many years since the UK, or Wales, have endured a long cold snowy season. We are it seems long overdue a cold winter although some doubt given we are in an age of global warming that this is in anyway possible.
My views are that weather is cyclic, and the latest warming spell is one such cyclic rhythm, and that a cold cycle is now beginning. With low sunspot activity I expect this year to offer what to many is the unexpected - a cold and possibly long winter with ample snowfall. The past summer was the coldest and wettest for many a year, and temperatures so far this Autumn have been average. High pressure has consistently ridged from the Azores northward and eastward, and is persistently doing so - leading me to believe a pattern is now becoming established. For this reason I am in agreement with the various agencies that this winter will be drier than last, and drier than average. Temperatures I believe will be average to below with some very cold snowy periods intermingled with short warmer spells. In my opinion there is a more than even chance this winter will be the coldest for more than a decade.
The weather patterns of the last few months have been reminiscent of patterns in the 60’s and 70‘s - reinforcing my view.
This blog will be updated on a regular basis so keep coming back for updates. Meantime you are able to view my weather station - Cwmparc Weather - for live weather and forecasts at http://www.derrylynne.co.uk/cwmweather/wx.php
